Libya’s Elusive Peace: Can Diplomacy Break the Cycle?

For years, Libya has been trapped in a seemingly endless cycle of conflict and division. Since 2014, the country has been split into two rival governments, each claiming legitimacy, and multiple prime ministers vying for power. International intervention has repeatedly attempted to broker peace through various diplomatic initiatives, but with limited success. A new US-led plan seeks to unify warring parties under a power-sharing deal, with Turkey playing a crucial supporting role.

The Anatomy of Failure

Libya’s predicament stems from the ashes of Muammar Gaddafi’s regime and has been exacerbated by regional and international interference. The country’s deep-seated divisions, pitting east against west, are not easily bridged. Previous attempts at reconciliation have been met with skepticism or outright hostility from various factions.

A Recipe for Disaster?

Critics argue that the proposed power-sharing deal may reward bad behavior rather than encouraging genuine cooperation. By legitimizing two rival administrations and granting concessions to groups with little incentive to compromise, the international community risks perpetuating the status quo.

The US-led initiative has raised concerns about Turkey’s involvement, particularly given its regional ambitions and interests. While Ankara plays a key role in brokering a deal, its motivations are not entirely altruistic. The US also has its own agenda in Libya, driven by energy security and counter-terrorism concerns.

Despite these reservations, some remain optimistic about the prospects for peace in Libya. Anas El Gomati, founder of the Sadeq Institute, advocates for a more inclusive approach to governance, recognizing the need for meaningful power-sharing and representation from various regions. William Lawrence, director of the North African Area Studies Program at the National Council on US-Arab Relations, stresses the importance of addressing Libya’s underlying social and economic issues.

The success of the current diplomatic initiative will ultimately depend on Libyan factions’ willingness to compromise. The path forward is fraught with challenges: navigating complex webs of interests and alliances while ensuring that external actors do not exploit their influence for personal gain. As Murat Aslan, security and defense researcher at SETA Foundation, cautions, “any deal must be grounded in a clear understanding of Libya’s historical context, its people’s aspirations, and the need for genuine representation.”

As the world watches this latest attempt to bring peace to Libya, several questions remain unanswered. Can external actors genuinely help broker a lasting settlement, or will their involvement serve only to further entrench existing power dynamics? Will Libyan factions be willing to put aside their differences and work towards a common goal? And what happens if, once again, diplomacy fails?

Libya’s peace remains elusive, a story of missed opportunities, fragmented power structures, and the endless search for a solution that seems just out of reach.